Highlights
- Agriculture in the San Joaquin Valley is a key driver of the regional economy and an important contributor to the nation’s food supply—but it faces a future with less water for irrigation.
- By 2040, average annual water supplies could decline by 20 percent, constrained chiefly by the transition to groundwater sustainability under the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, but exacerbated by climate change and increased environmental regulations.
- In the worst-case scenario, nearly 900,000 acres of farmland would be fallowed, almost 50,000 jobs would be lost, and regional economic activity would decline by 2.3 percent. But adaptations such as water trading and investments in new supplies—along with continued growth in agricultural productivity—could soften the economic blow; new supplies could also significantly reduce the need to fallow lands.
- Improving trading rules, water infrastructure, and groundwater recharge could lower the cost of adapting to the coming changes. Incentivizing alternative uses for irrigated lands could bring additional income to farmers and local communities, while improving public health and environmental outcomes on fallowed lands.